FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. – Aug. 6, 2010 – Government forecasters slightly reduced their tropical predictions on Thursday yet still call for a highly active season with 14 to 20 named storms, including eight to 12 hurricanes.
With the busiest stretch upcoming, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts four to six of the hurricanes will be major with sustained winds greater than 110 mph.
“The key message is that we can expect well above normal activity for the rest of the season,” said Gerry Bell, NOAA’s lead hurricane forecaster.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Colin was resurrected on Thursday and expected to either brush or directly hit Bermuda on Saturday. Then it was expected to curve out to sea without growing into a hurricane. The system briefly grew to tropical storm status on Tuesday and disintegrated into an open wave.
NOAA reduced its forecast a notch because it expected more storms to pop up in June and July, Bell said.
Because three named storms already have emerged, including Hurricane Alex and Tropical Storms Bonnie and Colin, NOAA calls for up to 17 named storms, including up to 11 hurricanes, to develop over the rest of the season, which ends on Nov. 30.
In late May, NOAA released an outlook calling for 14 to 23 named storms, including eight to 14 hurricanes. The average season sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes.
NOAA cites three main reasons for maintaining a busy forecast: abnormally warm water in the tropics; a decades-long era of Atlantic hurricane intensity and the emergence of La Nina, an atmospheric condition that nurtures tropical systems.
Historically, the busiest stretch of the season is from mid-August through early October.
Copyright © 2010 Sun Sentinel, Ken Kaye. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune News Service.
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