Friday, September 18, 2020
Monday, September 14, 2020
CDC Eviction Moratorium
Order Summary On September 1, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued an eviction moratorium for nonpayment of rent for certain renters until the end of the year. The order is written to be effective when it is formally entered into the Federal Register on Friday, September 4. Applicability The order applies to renters who swear under penalty of perjury that the following are true: The individual has used best efforts to obtain all available government assistance for rent or housing; The individual either (i) expects to earn no more than $99,000 in annual income for Calendar Year 2020 (or no more than $198,000 if filing a joint tax return), (ii) was not required to report any income in 2019 to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service, or (iii) received an Economic Impact Payment (stimulus check) pursuant to Section 2201 of the CARES Act; The individual is unable to pay the full rent or make a full housing payment due to substantial loss of household income, loss of compensable hours of work or wages, a lay-off, or extraordinary out-of-pocket medical expenses; The individual is using best efforts to make timely partial payments that are as close to the full payment as the individual’s circumstances may permit, taking into account other nondiscretionary expenses; and Eviction would likely render the individual homeless— or force the individual to move into and live in close quarters in a new congregate or shared living setting— because the individual has no other available housing options. Other Provisions The written affirmation by the tenant must be signed under penalty of perjury by all adults on the lease and given to the landlord. The order does not affect the ability of a landlord to evict for reasons other than non-payment of rent or the ability to charge late fees for unpaid rent. The order does not relieve the renter of the obligation to pay rent or adhere to the lease. Interaction with State and Local Governments This order does not affect state and local eviction moratoriums that are already in place and that meet or exceed the same level of protection as that in the CDC order. The order makes clear that states and localities can enact protections above and beyond those in the order. Criminal Penalties Violations by a person of the order are punishable by a fine of up to $100,000 and up to 1 year in jail, or both, if the violation does not result in a death. If it does result in a death, a violation by a person is punishable by a fine of up to $250,000, or 1 year in jail, or both. Violations by an organization are punishable by a fine of up to $200,000 and up to 1 year in jail, or both, if the violation does not result in a death. If it does result in a death, a violation by an organization is punishable by a fine of up to $500,000. Perjury is a federal crime that that is punishable by a fine or by up to 5 years in jail, or both. For more information, please contact the NARPM Governmental Affairs Team at email@example.com.
Wednesday, August 26, 2020
Thursday, August 20, 2020
Wednesday, August 19, 2020
The Census report on new construction showed a whopping 22.6% increase above the revised June estimate in housing starts in July. Year-over-year starts are up 23.4%. This means we can add housing starts to our growing collection of V-shaped recovery charts for the 2020 housing market.
From the report:
Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,496,000. This is 22.6% (±14.7%) above the revised June estimate of 1,220,000 and is 23.4% (±12.4%) above the July 2019 rate of 1,212,000.
Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 940,000; this is 8.2% (±10.3%)* above the revised June figure of 869,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 547,000.
This recovery in starts is a little bit like deja vu all over again. Back in 2018, when builder confidence took a dive, new homes sales were falling and the monthly supply spiked. We spent parts of 2019 whittling down the excess inventory. Because of this, housing starts were roughly flat for the entire year. Rising monthly supply led many housing bears to predict that 2018 was the peak for housing and home prices would next likely crash. I had a different opinion.
I put the housing sector in the penalty box until the monthly supply for new homes went below 6.5 months. But, I also predicted that in short order housing starts would grow again. In a few months, monthly supply came down and builder confidence rose. In the COVID recovery we are seeing the same thing: builder confidence data collapsed and then recovered in an epic way. So it’s not surprising to see today’s housing starts boom and the monthly supply of new homes back to an area where this type of housing starts data would appear.
Along with housing starts, housing permits recovered as well.
To understand the housing recovery during the COVID-19 crisis, it is critical to remember that from 2008-2019 we experienced the weakest housing recovery from a crash ever recorded. The years 2020-2024 have the best demographics for housing. Added to this we have the lowest mortgage rates ever. This is essentially the perfect storm for the housing market. This is why housing has held up so well after a brief shock from COVID-19.
Ignore gold bug conspiracy theories who are posting ill-conceived dual axis charts talking about a bubble crash that will happen soon due to forbearance. Even in a year when we had the greatest health and economic shock of our lifetime, housing recovered first. We didn’t need a high level of sales to get demand back on-trend.
The August reports for new and existing home sales will seal the deal on the housing V-shape recovery. At that point, we will need to switch from talking about the V-shaped recovery in housing to a more traditional way of looking at housing data.
We need to take a deep breath, smile at the bubble boys with all their silly bubble crash theories, and start talking about other variables in the housing market. The V-shape charts are done for the most part on housing. While it has been a lot of fun taking the housing bears to the woodshed, we still have much to do to get the total economy back on track.